The Paris Bourse prepares for the main event of the week: June inflation in the US, Morning session

The Paris Stock Exchange managed to win back Monday’s losses yesterday thanks to a sharp decline in oil prices at the end of the session. But the trend should reverse this morning ahead of June US inflation data. In Germany, consumer price inflation was confirmed at 8.2% year on year last month.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 1% on Tuesday after a volatile session, but fears of slower growth and aggressive monetary policy have taken over again. The International Monetary Fund also cut its growth forecast for the US economy to 2.3% this year from 2.9% forecast in June.

The US Department of Labor will publish last month’s consumer price statistics at 2:30 pm. They were due to rise 8.8% year on year, a new high in 40 years, after 8.6% in May. Some analysts, including those at UBS, go so far as to expect a 9% increase, largely due to the sharp rise in gasoline and used car prices.

75 or 100 basis points?

Several U.S. Federal Reserve officials recently called for a 75 basis point hike in the Fed funds rate in July in a bid to curb inflation after raising the same amount the previous month. But a higher-than-expected figure could spur expectations of a 100 basis point increase.

Further growth in consumer prices today will undoubtedly strengthen the position of the Fed, push the dollar up and stocks down.says Opek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote Bank. On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected reading could revive hopes for a soft landing in the US economy and lead to a welcome pause in the dollar’s rally and thus a rebound in equities ahead of the big hits. publish your quarterly results on Thursday. However, she adds that in both cases, market volatility should remain high and visibility limited, especially given the summer decline in trading volumes. “.

In the foreign exchange market, the euro-dollar approached parity at around 1.00005 ahead of a jump in the single currency, which is trading around $1.0030 this morning. But a drop below $1, which will be the first since 2002, is only a matter of time, which is a real problem for the European Central Bank, pushing up energy prices and other commodities, thus fueling inflation.

Strategic partnership between Renault and Vitesco

In Asia, the central banks of Korea and New Zealand raised their interest rates by 50 basis points this morning to 2.25% and 2.5% respectively. Good news from China, however, exports increased by 13.2% year on year in the first half and imports by 4.8%. Better-than-expected performance that could temporarily ease fears of a slowdown caused by the risk of new health restrictions.

Renault announced the signing of a strategic partnership agreement with the German company Vitesco Technologies to develop power electronics for the motorization of electric and hybrid vehicles.

Among analyst notes, Jeffreys began to cover Veralia to “purchase” aim for 37 euros. Barclays has raised its recommendation for Amundi from “line weight” to “excess weight” with a reduction in the target price from 77 to 70 euros.